Modeling Political Decisions for Sustainability - Einzelansicht

This seminar will introduce students to the Predictioneer’s Game, an applied model of multi-party decision-making. Subsequently, students will apply their modeling skills to specific political decisions on sustainability. The domain of application for the decision forecasts will be European-level decisions on Carbon Removals. The language of instruction is English.

This seminar will introduce students to the Predictioneer’s Game, an applied model of multi-party decision-making. Subsequently, students will apply their modeling skills to specific political decisions on sustainability. The domain of application for the decision forecasts will be European-level decisions on Carbon Removals. The language of instruction is English.

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2009. The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future. New York: Random House.

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2010. Judging Judgment. Critical Review 22 (4):355-388. doi: 10.1080/08913811.2010.541686

Sprinz, Detlef F., Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Steffen Kallbekken, Frans Stokman, Håkon Sælen, and Robert Thomson. 2016. Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations. Politics and Governance 4 (3):172-187. doi: 10.17645/pag.v4i3.654

No advanced mathematical skills are required as this is an applied course.

The costs of the student licenses for the Predictioneer's Game will be covered by the Dean of Studies Office.

Learning Goals

Knowledge & Understanding

• background on political decision-making in medium-large actor settings,
• understand the core inputs & outputs of a prediction model, and

• decision-making on EU climate policies, esp. carbon removals.

Applying, Analyzing &Evaluating

• undertake predictions of multi-actor negotiations for a hitherto unresolved challenge of sustainability policy,
• agree, among students and facilitated by the instructors, on standardized position input scales as relevant to utilizing a policy prediction software, and
• research, execute, and evaluate your own simulation model runs.

Competences

• Students develop their own research strategy amendable to using policy prediction tools, e.g., for subsequent use in their thesis as well as in a corporate or political context, and

• work individually as well as in groups on a diverse set of assignments.

Master  or doctoral student status, or special student status in Political Science, Public Administration, MAIB, MANIA, MPM, Sociology, Business Administration, Economics, and HPI; exceptions at the discretion of the instructor.

Approximate distribution of portfolio examination requirements:

The first half of the course serves as an itroduction to the Predictioneer's Game - which will be applied in the second half of the course to predicting EU decison-making on carbon removals (negative emissions).

Master or doctoral student status, or special student status in Political Science, Public Administration, MAIB, MANIA, MPM, Sociology, Business Administration, Economics, and HPI; exceptions at the discretion of the instructor.