PULS
Foto: Matthias Friel
In this seminar, we explore key studies in integrated assessment of climate change mitigation strategies. The learning goal is to develop a sound understanding of main concepts of integrated assessment modelling and how it is used to inform climate policy making.Two introductory session will provide (i) a primer on integrated assessment models (IAMs), (ii) an overview of their application for public policy analysis, (iii) a summary of key characteristics of anthropogenic climate change and associated economic concepts, and (iv) an overview of the topics to be covered during the seminar.
In the main part of the seminar, we will go through key advances in the integrated assessment of climate change mitigation strategies, with a focus on the economics of reaching long-term climate targets. These advances will be explored step by step to foster an understanding how they build on each other:1. IAMs and their use for policy evaluation2. Cost-effective CO2 emissions pathways towards long-term climate targets3. Climate mitigation is more than just CO2 emissions reduction: Cost-effective multi-gas mitigation strategies and the economic implications of greenhouse gas metrics4. The introduction of carbon dioxide removal to mitigation pathways: more ambitious targets, overshoot trajectories, economic implications5. The emissions gap, and the challenge of delayed climate action for keeping long-term targets within reach6. Translating the Paris Agreement: new target and scenario logics7. The international dimension: efficiency, equity, sovereignity and burden sharing
In each of these sessions, a student presents on one of these topics based on their assigned reading of literature consisting of scientific articles or excerpts from textbooks and reports (2-3 literature sources per presentation). The presentation should include a clear description of the reading content and a reflection. It is followed by a group discussion relating the presented material to the topic. The discussion is opened by the instructor and a prepared comment by another student.After the two introductory sessions, students are given the opportunity to select (1) the topic of their reading assignment for the presentation and (2) the topic for their prepared comment on a first come-first served basis.
The final session of the seminar is dedicated to a concluding discussion of the entire material covered in the seminar and guidance for the preparation of the term paper. In the term paper, students are asked to develop their own assessment of selected questions on climate change mitigation strategies.The seminar is designed to allow participants to acquire an own understanding of the key concepts, applications and insights in the field. Besides knowledge about the integrated assessment of climate change mitigation strategies, the course promotes a series of important soft skills: public speaking, presenting and reflecting on scientific content, and navigating self-directed learning in the field of integrated assessment.
Introductory reading assignments• Perman, R., et al., Natural Resource and Environmental Economics: Chapters 2, 5, 16. 4th Edition. Addison Wesley (2018)• Emmanuel, K. A., Climate Science and Climate Risk: A Primer, 17 pp. MIT (2016). https://eapsweb.mit.edu/sites/default/files/Climate_Primer.pdf• Weyant, J., et. al., Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: An Overview and Comparison of Approaches and Results,” pp. 368-396 (Chapter 10) in J. P. Bruce, et. al. (eds), Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1996).• The SENSES project. A primer on climate change scenarios. https://climatescenarios.org/primer/
Topical reading assignmentsTentative list, some adjustments up to the introductory sessions are possible1. IAMs and their use for policy evaluationCore (also part of the introductory reading assignment): Weyant, J., et. al., Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: An Overview and Comparison of Approaches and Results,” pp. 368-396 (Chapter 10). In: J. P. Bruce, et. al. (eds), Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1996).Extended: Weyant, J., Some Contributions of Integrated Assessment Models of Global Climate Change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy (2017).Extended: Nordhaus, W., Integrated Economic and Climate Modeling, pp. 1069-1131 (Chapter 16). In: Handbook of CGE Modeling - Vol. 1, Elsevier (2013).
2. Cost-effective CO2 emissions pathwaysCore: Wigley, T., Richels, R. & Edmonds, J. Economic and environmental choices in the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Nature 379, 240–243 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1038/379240a0
Extended: Ha-Duong, M., Grubb, M. & Hourcade, JC. Influence of socioeconomic inertia and uncertainty on optimal CO2-emission abatement. Nature 390, 270–273 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1038/36825
Extended: Manne, A., Richels, R. On stabilizing CO2 concentrations – cost‐effective emission reduction strategies. Environmental Modeling & Assessment 2, 251–265 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019038100805
3. Cost-effective multi-gas mitigation strategiesCore: Manne, A., Richels R.: An alternative approach to establishing trade-offs among greenhouse gases. Nature 410:675–677 (2001)Extended: van Vuuren, D., et al.: Multi-gas scenarios to stabilize radiative forcing. Energy Econ 28:102–120 (2006)Extended: Reisinger, A. et al.: Implications of alternative metrics for global mitigation costs and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. Clim Chang 117:677–690 (2013)
4. The introduction of carbon dioxide removal to mitigation pathwaysCore: Azar, C., et al.: The feasibility of low CO2 concentration targets and the role of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Clim Chang 100(1):195–202. (2010)Extended: van Vuuren, D.P., Riahi K.: The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets. Clim Chang 104(3–4):793–801. (2011)Extended: Emmerling, J. et al.: The role of the discount rate for emission pathways and negative emissions. Environ. Res. Lett. (2019) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab3cc9
5. The challenge of delayed climate action for keeping long-term targets within reachCore: Luderer, G. et al.: Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets, Environ. Res. Lett. 8 (2013)Extended: Riahi et al.: Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals. Tech. For. Soc. Chang. 90, Part A: 8-23 (2015)Extended: Strefler, J. et al.: Between Scylla and Charybdis: Delayed mitigation narrows the passage between large-scale CDR and high costs. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 044015 (2018)
6. New target and scenario logicsCore: Rogelj, J., Huppmann, D., Krey, V. et al. A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal. Nature 573, 357–363 (2019).Extended: Strefler, J. et al.: Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal. Nature Communications, in press (2021)
7. The international dimension: efficiency, equity, sovereignity and burden sharingCore: Bauer, N. et al.: Quantification of an efficiency–sovereignty trade-off in climate policy. Nature 588: 261–266 (2020)Extended: Manne, A. S. & Stephan, G. Global climate change and the equity–efficiency puzzle. Energy 30, 2525–2536 (2005)Extended: Tavoni, M. et al.: Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models. Nat. Clim. Change 5,119–126 (2015)Extended: Van den Berg, N.J. et al.: Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways. Clim. Chang. 162: 1805-1822 (2020)
Schedule:Note: Tentative schedule. Final schedule depends on enrollment. Exact time of sessions in the last two blocks will be fixed after the introductory sessions. Sessions start at the exact time as listed.The seminar is scheduled in three blocks.
10.05.2021Kick-off and introductory sessions11:30-13:00, 14:00-15:30, 15:45-17:15
12.05.2021Assignment of presentation and comment topics
31.05.-01.06.2021Two seminar days with two presentation sessions (90 minutes each) per day. Exact times tbd
23.-24.06.2021Two seminar days with up to two presentation sessions (90 minutes each) per day and a wrap-up session on the last day. Assignment for the term paper will be given on the second day. Exact dates tbd
19.08.2021 midnightTerm paper due
Draft presentation slides are due three days before the presentation. For example, if the presentation is scheduled for 31.05., slides and report are due 27.05. midnight.Prepared comments do not need to be shared before the session, but a summary of the comment (e.g. presentation slides or a written summary) is due at midnight of the day after the session.
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