Seismic Hazard Analysis - Einzelansicht

In this course, the basics of earthquake hazard estimation will be presented and discussed. We will understand why earthquakes generate damages and how seismological (but also geological and geodetic) data can be used to estimate the size, location and frequency of future earthquakes (seismic source models). We will discuss the different factors that control the frequency and amplitude of seismic shaking and learn how to develop and use seismic motion prediction models. We will discuss the interface between science and decision making and how probabilistic seismic hazard estimation models are established and used. Finally, we will discuss the potential (and future) impact of earthquakes on urban areas and identify the main seismic hot spots on our planet. Practical applications of these notions will be taught from Jupyter notebooks. Training in the Python language and the most useful probabilistic notions in the field of risk estimation (e.g uncertainty evaluation) will be taught in this course. 

Course content

• Key ingredients of seismic hazard analysis
• Seismicity models (where ? how big ? how frequent ?)
• Ground-shaking models (factors controlling ”strong” ground-shaking)
• Understanding the probability concepts used in natural hazards evaluation
• Introduction to probabilities
• Hazard curves and hazard maps
• Capturing epistemic uncertainties (uncertainties due to the lack of knowledge)
• Decision-making in the context of geo-hazards
• Lessons from recent earthquakes
• Seismic hot spots (the seismic future of cities)
• Scientific programming (use of Python notebooks, Python programming)