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Modeling Political Decisions for Sustainability - Einzelansicht

Veranstaltungsart Seminar Veranstaltungsnummer 430511
SWS 2 Semester WiSe 2023/24
Einrichtung Sozialwissenschaften   Sprache englisch
Belegungsfrist 02.10.2023 - 10.11.2023

Belegung über PULS
Gruppe 1:
     jetzt belegen / abmelden
    Tag Zeit Rhythmus Dauer Raum Lehrperson Ausfall-/Ausweichtermine Max. Teilnehmer/-innen
Einzeltermine ausblenden
Seminar Do 08:30 bis 12:00 wöchentlich 19.10.2023 bis 18.01.2024  3.06.S19 Prof. Sprinz 23.11.2023: 
28.12.2023: Akademische Weihnachtsferien
04.01.2024: Akademische Weihnachtsferien
  • 19.10.2023
  • 26.10.2023
  • 02.11.2023
  • 09.11.2023
  • 16.11.2023
  • 30.11.2023
  • 07.12.2023
  • 14.12.2023
  • 21.12.2023
  • 11.01.2024
  • 18.01.2024
Einzeltermine anzeigen
Seminar Do 08:30 bis 12:00 Einzeltermin am 23.11.2023 3.06.S18 Prof. Sprinz  

This seminar will introduce students to the Predictioneer’s Game, an applied model of multi-party decision-making. Subsequently, students will apply their modeling skills to specific political decisions on sustainability. The domain of application for the decision forecast is likely to be the buildup of forest carbon sinks and remunerating forest ecosystem services in Europe. The language of instruction is English. All papers will be written in English.


Bueno de Mesquita, B. (2009). The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future (1st ed.). Random House.

Bueno de Mesquita, B. (2009). Recipe for Failure - Why Copenhagen Will Be a Bust, and Other Prophecies from the Foreign-Policy World's Leading Predictioneer. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2009/10/19/recipe-for-failure/

Bueno de Mesquita, B. (2011). A New Model for Predicting Policy Choices. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 28(1), 65-87. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894210388127

Sprinz, D. F., & Bueno de Mesquita, B. (2015). Predicting Paris: Forecasting the Outcomes of UNFCCC COP-21 With the Predictioneer’s Game. ResearchGate. http://www.uni-potsdam.de/u/sprinz/doc/Sprinz_BuenodeMesquita.2015.PredictingParis.Summary.ResearchGate.pdf


Master, M.A., M.S., or doctoral student status, or special student status in Political Science, Public Administration, MAIB, MANIA, MPM, Sociology, Business Administration, Economics, and HPI; exceptions at the discretion of the instructor.


Course Requirements and Grading

Students are expected to attend all classes and read all required readings before class so as to allow for informed discussions.

This course comprises a portfolio of assignments. Students receiving 5-6 ECTS will undertake the simulation paper and presentation as a group assignment; students wishing to receive 9-10 ECTS undertake the simulation paper and presentation as an individual assignment. 




Fulfill tasks and tests on Moodle


(Individual) actor paper


(Individual) actor paper presentation


(Group) simulation paper


(Group) simulation paper presentation



Learning Goals


Knowledge & Understanding

  • background on political decision-making in medium-large actor settings,
  • understand the core inputs & outputs of a prediction model, and
  • decision-making on remunerating forest ecosystem services.


Applying, Analyzing &Evaluating

  • undertake predictions of multi-actor negotiations for a hitherto unresolved challenge of sustainability policy,
  • agree, among students and facilitated by the instructors, on standardized position input scales as relevant to utilizing a policy prediction software, and
  • research, execute, and evaluate your own simulation model runs.


  • Students develop their own research strategy amendable to using policy prediction tools, e.g., for subsequent use in their thesis as well as in a corporate or political context, and
  • work individually as well as in groups on a diverse set of assignments.

Keine Einordnung ins Vorlesungsverzeichnis vorhanden. Veranstaltung ist aus dem Semester WiSe 2023/24 , Aktuelles Semester: SoSe 2024