Modeling Political Decisions for Sustainability - Einzelansicht

This seminar will introduce students to the Predictioneer’s Game, an applied model of multi-party decision-making. Subsequently, students will apply their modeling skills to specific political decisions on sustainability. The domain of application for the decision forecast is likely to be the buildup of forest carbon sinks and remunerating forest ecosystem services in Europe. The language of instruction is English. All papers will be written in English.

Bueno de Mesquita, B. (2009). The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future (1st ed.). Random House.

Bueno de Mesquita, B. (2009). Recipe for Failure - Why Copenhagen Will Be a Bust, and Other Prophecies from the Foreign-Policy World's Leading Predictioneer. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2009/10/19/recipe-for-failure/

Bueno de Mesquita, B. (2011). A New Model for Predicting Policy Choices. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 28(1), 65-87. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894210388127

Sprinz, D. F., & Bueno de Mesquita, B. (2015). Predicting Paris: Forecasting the Outcomes of UNFCCC COP-21 With the Predictioneer’s Game. ResearchGate. http://www.uni-potsdam.de/u/sprinz/doc/Sprinz_BuenodeMesquita.2015.PredictingParis.Summary.ResearchGate.pdf

Master, M.A., M.S., or doctoral student status, or special student status in Political Science, Public Administration, MAIB, MANIA, MPM, Sociology, Business Administration, Economics, and HPI; exceptions at the discretion of the instructor.

Course Requirements and Grading

Students are expected to attend all classes and read all required readings before class so as to allow for informed discussions.

This course comprises a portfolio of assignments. Students receiving 5-6 ECTS will undertake the simulation paper and presentation as a group assignment; students wishing to receive 9-10 ECTS undertake the simulation paper and presentation as an individual assignment. 

Learning Goals

Knowledge & Understanding

• background on political decision-making in medium-large actor settings,
• understand the core inputs & outputs of a prediction model, and

• decision-making on remunerating forest ecosystem services.

Applying, Analyzing &Evaluating

• undertake predictions of multi-actor negotiations for a hitherto unresolved challenge of sustainability policy,
• agree, among students and facilitated by the instructors, on standardized position input scales as relevant to utilizing a policy prediction software, and
• research, execute, and evaluate your own simulation model runs.

Competences

• Students develop their own research strategy amendable to using policy prediction tools, e.g., for subsequent use in their thesis as well as in a corporate or political context, and

• work individually as well as in groups on a diverse set of assignments.