Thursdays for...Predicting Environmental Policy - Einzelansicht

This research seminar combines environmental policy and applied methods training [with applicability to sustainability decisions in business/management and public policy]. To this end, students will be introduced to forecasting [political] negotiations in the field of environmental policy [on sustainability issues], employing the “The Predictioneer’s Game” software. The seminar will combine lectures on specific aspects of environmental policy [business and policy decisions] and on the simulation software, hands-on sessions using the Predictor’s Game, actor papers, and group simulation papers.   As a result of this course, students will be able to use the Predictioneer’s Game to forecast the outcomes of generic multi-party negotiations to assist strategic decisions in a variety of settings within and outside of the environmental policy field [of sustainability].

• Bueno de Mesquita, B. (2009). The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future. New York, Random House.
• Bueno de Mesquita, B. (2010). "Judging Judgment." Critical Review 22(4): 355-388.
• Bueno de Mesquita, B. (2011). "A New Model for Predicting Policy Choices." Conflict Management and Peace Science 28(1): 65-87.
• Sprinz, D. F., B. Bueno de Mesquita, S. Kallbekken, F. Stokman, H. Sælen and R. Thomson (2016). "Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations." Politics and Governance 4(3): 172-187.

http://www.incidepro.com/ (Predictioneer’s Game license)

For detailed information on the Albert-Einstein-Wissenschaftspark please look here: www.pik-potsdam.de

The syllabus to this seminar will be available at www.sprinz.org by Oct 15th.