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Foto: Matthias Friel

Modeling Political Decisions for Sustainability - Einzelansicht

Veranstaltungsart Seminar Veranstaltungsnummer 430111
SWS 2 Semester WiSe 2021/22
Einrichtung Sozialwissenschaften   Sprache englisch
Belegungsfrist 01.10.2021 - 10.11.2021

Belegung über PULS
Gruppe 1:
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    Tag Zeit Rhythmus Dauer Raum Lehrperson Ausfall-/Ausweichtermine Max. Teilnehmer/-innen
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Seminar Do 08:30 bis 10:30 Einzeltermin am 28.10.2021 3.06.S26 Prof. Sprinz  
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Seminar Do 08:30 bis 12:00 wöchentlich 04.11.2021 bis 09.12.2021  3.06.S21 Prof. Sprinz 18.11.2021: 
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Seminar Fr 09:00 bis 12:30 Einzeltermin am 12.11.2021 3.06.S21 Prof. Sprinz  
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Seminar Do 08:30 bis 12:00 14-täglich 18.11.2021 bis 16.12.2021  3.06.S26 Prof. Sprinz 02.12.2021: 
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Seminar Fr 08:30 bis 12:00 Einzeltermin am 07.01.2022 3.06.S21 Prof. Sprinz  

This seminar will introduce students to the Predictioneer’s Game, an applied model of multi-party decision-making. Subsequently, students will apply their modeling skills to specific political decisions on sustainability: remuneration of forest ecosystem services, in particular the negotiations regarding a permanent remuneration for the forest carbon sink function in Germany. While the Predictioneer’s Game will be introduced in English, the applied case will require fluency in Germany (reading, audio). All papers will be written in English.


Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2009. The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future. New York: Random House.


All other readings can be found on →Moodle.


Knowledge & Understanding

  • background on political decision-making in medium-large actor settings,
  • understand the core inputs & outputs of a prediction model, and
  • German debate and decision-making on remunerating forest ecosystem services.


Applying, Analyzing &Evaluating

  • undertake predictions of multi-actors negotiations for a hitherto unresolved challenge of sustainability policy,
  • agree, among students and facilitated by the instructors, on standardized position input scales as relevant to running policy prediction software, and
  • research, execute, and evaluate your own simulation model runs


  • Students develop their own research strategy amendable to using policy prediction tools, e.g., for subsequent use in their thesis as well as in a corporate or political context, and
  • work individually as well as in groups on a diverse set of assignments.

Keine Einordnung ins Vorlesungsverzeichnis vorhanden. Veranstaltung ist aus dem Semester WiSe 2021/22 , Aktuelles Semester: SoSe 2024