Modeling Political Decisions for Sustainability - Einzelansicht

This seminar will introduce students to the Predictioneer’s Game, an applied model of multi-party decision-making. Subsequently, students will apply their modeling skills to specific political decisions on sustainability: remuneration of forest ecosystem services, in particular the negotiations regarding a permanent remuneration for the forest carbon sink function in Germany. While the Predictioneer’s Game will be introduced in English, the applied case will require fluency in Germany (reading, audio). All papers will be written in English.

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2009. The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future. New York: Random House.

All other readings can be found on →Moodle.

Knowledge & Understanding

• background on political decision-making in medium-large actor settings,
• understand the core inputs & outputs of a prediction model, and

• German debate and decision-making on remunerating forest ecosystem services.

Applying, Analyzing &Evaluating

• undertake predictions of multi-actors negotiations for a hitherto unresolved challenge of sustainability policy,
• agree, among students and facilitated by the instructors, on standardized position input scales as relevant to running policy prediction software, and
• research, execute, and evaluate your own simulation model runs

Competences

• Students develop their own research strategy amendable to using policy prediction tools, e.g., for subsequent use in their thesis as well as in a corporate or political context, and

• work individually as well as in groups on a diverse set of assignments.